Critics charge unstable nation dealing with China, North Korea

WorldNetDaily

Michael Carl

July 16, 2010

U Aung, 53 years old, an Intha leg rowing fisherman holds his cone shaped net, used to catch fish March 2, 2007 on Inle Lake, Myanmar (Burma). The 22 kilometre long lake is also eleven kilometres wide.The fisherman of this region are famous for their leg rowing technique, standing on the stern on one leg and wrapping the other leg around the oar.

According to the Intha this allows the fisherman to better see the many obstacles in the large lake, offering relief to their arms. The fisherman usually catch Nga-hpein, which is a type of carp, selling for about USD1.00 per fish. With economic sanctions crippling the Burmese economy its people are eager for change and a better life.

According to government experts who are working on a seven step road map to democracy, within the next few months the Draft Constitution will be finalized which will hopefully bring a Referendum for Constitution by the end of the year. After that a Democratic election will be held in 2008.

According to the current scenario the change may happen soon but many say that Burmese will be afraid to vote with their heart but will cast their vote to prevent trouble.

The military regime in Burma, marginally in control of a Buddhist-dominated nation that has been torn by clan and tribal strife for decades, apparently is trying to strengthen its position by attempting to buy weapons-grade uranium and nuclear technology from Asian and European nations.

Several experts have confirmed to WND the moves, and say they believe the efforts are to be a bargaining tool to pacify opposition in the upcoming October elections. Others say the power will be used against the West and other political opponents.

Vision Without Borders president Patrick Klein said Burma’s major technology source is the closed regime in North Korea.

“North Korea is helping them develop nuclear weapons,” Klein reported.

What do prominent U.S. leaders have in common with rogue tyrants? Read Jamie Glazov’s groundbreaking “United in Hate: The Left’s Romance With Tyranny and Terror”

Karen National Union Vice Chairman David Tharckabaw adds the program is farther along than just getting uranium from other countries.

“We had a report from the inside that they’re mining uranium to use in a nuclear reactor. They have a secret arrangement for building a nuclear reactor,” Tharckabaw explained.

“They’re sending out state callers to Russia, to Japan and to China to acquire expertise to nuclear weapons,” Tharckabaw added. “Germany has also been one of Burma’s contacts for technology.”

Listen to an interview with Tharckabaw:

The Karen leader agreed that North Korea also is one of the nations that is assisting Burma in its nuclear-weapons program.

“The technology will definitely lead to nuclear bomb production,” Tharckabaw added.

Klein reports that on two occasions within the past year, weapons shipments from one or more Asian countries have been intercepted.

“There was a ship heading from North Korea to Burma and the ship was full of arms. One of the U.S. warships followed that ship and the ship turned around and went back to North Korea,” Klein stated.

“There was another plane a couple of months later and it was flying through Bangkok. They found it was loaded with arms as well and, from what I understand, that plane was headed for Burma,” Klein continued.

“Burma is amassing arms and it looks like they’re working on getting a nuclear weapon if they can,” Klein said.

While Iran’s nuclear program has been grabbing the attention around the world in recent months, Klein said, in fact, there are two active nuclear programs in Burma.

“They have one that is a civilian program that is for research. They have one that is a secret one, for the military. Both are going on simultaneously,” Tharckabaw said.

The Karen leader adds that the nuclear weapon will be used as a “power tool” by the military dictatorship.

“The Burmese military is full of megalomaniacs and they want to use the weapons to build an empire. There have been three empires, and they see themselves as building the fourth Burmese Empire,” Tharckabaw further explained.

Human-rights lawyer and Burma analyst Scott Johnson agrees.

“While the (State Peace and Development Council regime) hasn’t explicitly written why it wants nukes, the most logical reason is that the regime like many military authoritarian governments wants to retain power. For decades they have been under threat for their appalling human-rights records – both from international condemnation and internal strife from a hostile population,” Johnson said.

The Australian-based lawyer adds that the regime uses deliberately heavy-handed tactics and is a copycat of another notorious Asian regime.

“The regime holds itself in power via a police state, bolstered by economic and military support from China (and others) and thus seeks the ultimate weapon, i.e., nuclear weapons, to ensure its survival. In this respect it is emulating North Korea,” he said.

Johnson adds that the Burmese junta needs China.

“China is Burma’s big brother and the natural-gas and oil pipelines will soon be connected through Burma to China. Thus, it’s safe to say that the regime wants nukes merely to bolster its image and ensure they are untouchable like North Korea and Iran,” Johnson added.

The Karen National Union leader believes that the nuclear project shows that Burma is trying to be like its authoritarian Asian neighbors.

“They want to imitate North Korea. North Korea is going ahead with its bomb-making and not worried about the democratic countries, like South Korea. They know that South Korea can’t react,” Tharckabaw said.

“The international community is trying to deal with it and North Korea is going ahead. Burma wants to be like that,” the Karen leader added.

The Karen leader says that the Burmese government is attempting to eliminate any political opposition from the outside and on the inside. Klein says that the Thai military is helping Burma in its effort to eliminate ethnic minorities.

“Some of the Thai generals are working with the Burmese generals. What we’re hearing is that they’re trying to wipe out a lot of Karen people. We’re hearing that with the elections coming in October, they’re trying to wipe out everyone who is opposed to the government,” Klein explained.

Klein adds that this collaboration has led to some major human-rights abuses on both sides of the border.

“My contacts are concerned that they’re going to try to kill the men in the villages, let the women and children flee to Thailand to the refugee camps, and then the Thai generals are going to force the women and children back into Burma to clear the minefields,” Klein said.

Klein adds that Thailand’s interest is financial.

“There’s a lot of lumber coming out of Burma into Thailand, a lot of drugs and a lot of gems. There’s a lot of money that needs to be made,” Klein continued.

Listen to an interview with Klein:

“One day when we were in the refugee camps, the Thai border police were there and they were threatening to send the kids back into Burma for $15 a head,” Klein observed.

David Tharckabaw agrees that financial arrangements are a part of the Burmese government’s dealings with their Asian neighbors.

Klein adds that he’s apprehensive about what happens between now and the October elections.

“I’m concerned that there may be a big slaughter before the election. The tribal people and the Burmese people too are against the military regime,” Klein warned.

Klein also says there are large armies from the Karens and the other tribes that are fighting against the government.

It’s a major concern of human-rights groups that the Burmese government is attempting to kill everyone who may oppose the military government.

Klein agrees with Tharckabaw that the Burmese government is trying to make the rest of the world believe that the military government is popular.

“The election is already cut-and-dried. The government has rigged the vote, and I think they’re going to try to make sure the vote comes out 75 percent in favor of the government,” Tharckabaw explained.

“The only thing anyone can do is boycott the vote. But it’s hard to boycott the vote,” Tharckabaw added.

Klein adds that the U.N. has been unwilling to take action against the Burmese military regime. He says that both Russia and China have used their vetoes in the U.N. Security Council to prevent any action from being taken.

WorldNetDaily Exclusive

ENDS

DVB

Francis Wade

July 16, 2010

The fallout from the global recession has combined with tightening economic sanctions on Burma to cause an apparent nosedive in foreign investment over the past year, Burmese government statistics show.

A report by the Ministry of National Planning and Development, seen by AP, shows that overseas investment fell 68 percent, or US$670 million, in the 2009-10 fiscal year. This is despite Burma sealing seven new investment deals in that period, four of which were in its lucrative oil and gas sector, AP said.

The Burmese economy is in a phase of wholesale reinvention, with the government selling off swathes of previously state-owned industry to private businesses. It is also busily attracting more foreign investment, largely from neighbouring China, India and Thailand. The majority is focused on its energy sector and extractive industries.

But while overseas investment figures may have fallen, the ruling junta is still waiting for the activation of a number of projects that will eventually net them billions of dollars. The Shwe dual-pipeline project, which will carry oil and gas from Burma’s western shores to southern China, is likely to generate some US$30 billion over the three decades after it comes online in 2012.

Moreover, much of the revenue from these projects is believed to be stashed in foreign banks, mainly Singaporean, and will therefore not show up in government figures, which are commonly believed to be tweaked to avoid close scrutiny of its economic practices. Poor economic indicators also provide ammunition for the junta in its claims that sanctions are hurting Burmese people.

Burma remains one of the world’s least developed countries, despite the swift rise of many of its regional neighbours. Last year it ranked 138 out of 182 countries on the UN’s Human Development Index, while the UN Development Programme said last month that Burma would struggle to meet any of the Millennium Development Goals by 2015.

Given the crutch that burgeoning trade with China in particular has given, much of the Western community is now questioning the worth of sanctions, first implemented by the US in 1997. The boycott had intended to force the regime on a path toward democratic transition, but Burma is now heading towards elections this year that appear set to entrench military rule.

The economic powerhouses of the Asia-Pacific region – notably China, Thailand and Singapore – have refused to join the US and EU in implementing sanctions, while trade with Burma’s giant to the west, India, is gaining in momentum. Burma supplies some 80 percent of Thailand’s gas, while for strategic reasons China is keen to secure the deposits and ports of the Bay of Bengal for its energy needs.

An Economist Intelligence Unit report this month said that economic growth in Burma will accelerate next year, but if one were to discount the expansion of the gas and hydropower industries, the economy will remain weak and growth “sluggish”.

DVB

ENDS

The Nation

Nalin Viboonchart

July 16, 2010

Investors from many Thai sectors are looking to Burma, with its low operating costs, abundant natural resources and large market, according to the Thai-Myanmar Business Council.

Representatives of Burma’s private sector visited the council in recent weeks to lobby Thai industries to establish manufacturing plants in the country, whose official name is Myanmar, said Thai-Myanmar Business Council Santi Vilassakdanont. Promising sectors in Burma include food processing, agriculture-related industries, consumer products and garments, he said.

Burma will hold a general election at the end of this year. It is expected that the new Burmese government will establish investment incentives aimed at foreign businesses.

“Burma has been opening its country to foreign investment since member nations agreed to implement the Asean Economic Community by 2015. Asean will become a single market under this agreement, and Burma does not want to be left behind. We’re cooperating closely with the private sector in Burma,” Santi said.

Moreover, Burmese authorities want to create jobs. At present, many Burmese labourers work in Thai manufacturing plants on the countries’ border. It makes sense for the Burmese to encourage these people to work in their home country, he said.

The Thai-Myanmar Business Council plans to take a delegation, including about 20 Thai businesspeople, to Burma next month, Santi said. During the visit, the two countries will sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) securing the supply of certain Burmese agricultural products to the Thai food-processing industry, as well as garment exports from Thailand to Burma.

Thai manufacturers will also be given opportunities to meet and establish relationships with Burmese businesspeople.

Santi said he had also received expressions of interest from representatives of firms in such heavy-industry sectors such as steel and cement, as well as from the energy industry, about investing in Burma.

Other countries, including China and Singapore, are also looking for investment opportunities in Burma. Santi said Thailand needs to take advantage of its geographical proximity to Burma and its historical ties with the country’s people.

“Thai industries should pay more attention to investing in Burma as the operating costs in that country, such as labour and land costs, are lower than in Thailand. Besides, the investment regulations in Burma are less stringent than in our country right now. We don’t know yet when the Southern Seaboard project will be ready for new investment,” he said.

The Thai-Myanmar Business Council was set up in February this year as collaboration between the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Thai Bankers Association. Santi, who is a former chairman of the FTI, is the first chairman of the council.

The Nation

ENDS

STRATFOR

May 19, 2010

In a success for Thailand’s armed forces, the military offensive against Red Shirt protesters in central Bangkok ended May 19.

The opposition Red Shirts now find themselves in a weakened position, but even so, they are not likely to fade away completely.

With the end of the offensive, the ruling Democrat Party now has bought itself some time to deal with the remaining challenges it faces ahead of elections that must be called no later than December 2011.

For its part, the Thai army has emerged in a much stronger position.

Analysis

Thai troops ended their offensive in downtown Bangkok at the main rally site of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship or “Red Shirt” protesters May 19. At 1pm local time, Red Shirt leaders in police custody asked their followers to go home. The operation concluded at 2 pm local time, with a total of about five dead and 50 wounded for the day.

Bangkok and 23 provinces in the north and northeast will be under curfew all night as police and the military attempt to put out fires, prevent follow-on attacks and stop sporadic small riots and any lingering protesters.

Most of the 3,000 or so protesters who remained until the very end will be taken to a stadium, loaded on buses and sent back to those north and northeastern provinces from where most of them came.

The army appears to have executed the final operation successfully. Some had feared the operation might last all of May 19 and even push into the next day. And the death toll was remarkably small compared to the nearly 40 who died in fighting from May 13-17 and the 26 or so who died in April 10 clashes.

That said, the bloodshed in recent months has exceeded that of periods of comparable unrest in the country in 1976 and 1992.

The low body count on May 19 is partially a result of the army’s ability to avoid pushing forces directly into the main protest; instead, it managed to shut down the protest by encircling it.

Only limited Red Shirt protests or violence occurred outside of Bangkok on May 19. In one instance of violence, some 5,000 protesters stormed the town hall in Udon Thani in reaction to the crackdown and calls for a general uprising. The crowd threatened to set fire to the building with car tires and fuel.

Elsewhere, 1,000 protesters broke through the main gate of the town hall in Khon Kaen. Neither of these events escalated into major conflict with security, however.

both locations are part of the Red Shirt movement’s northeastern support base, persistent attacks against public buildings and incidents of arson bear close scrutiny, as they might erupt into a greater conflagration.

The Red Shirt movement is now in very bad shape. Four of its top leaders were arrested May 19, and many of their deputies are also likely now (or soon will be) in custody. The arrestees, as well as a handful of powerful people behind the scenes, face vigorous prosecution and could face terrorism charges, which can carry capital punishment.

Other Red Shirts fled the scene before the final showdown, while military snipers assassinated the most radical Red Shirt, Maj. Gen. Khattiya Sawasdipol, aka Seh Daeng, when the final anti-protest operation began.

More than 100 bank accounts have been frozen to prevent the flow of funds from exiled politicians to their Red Shirt proxies.

Parties affected by these moves go beyond Thaksin Shinawatra, the exiled former prime minister and inspiration behind the Red Shirts, who saw a large chunk of his remaining funds in Thai banks seized in late February (one proximate cause of the mass protests).

Nevertheless, the Red Shirt movement will eventually regroup, though perhaps under a different banner.

The movement is grounded in the wide disparity of wealth, power and status between Thailand’s northern and northeastern provinces and Bangkok.

percent of Thailand’s nearly 70 million population lives in Bangkok, while about one-third lives in the northeast.

movement thus will continue to enjoy an advantage in numbers and voters and will continue to clamor for a more representative government. Such political change would threaten the interests of members of the royal family and bureaucratic and military elites in Bangkok. The contest will continue to play out as elite factions opposed to the status quo harness the popular movement for their own gain.

The Red Shirts’ push to force new elections, which began in mid-March, has failed. Because the Reds did not agree with an earlier proposal to end protests in exchange for elections in November, the ruling Democrat Party does not need to call elections until December 2011.

This gives the ruling party time to work on keeping its coalition together, dismantle the Red Shirt movement, pursue its political enemies, consolidate power, finalize its budget with the necessary perks for its allies and defend itself against the acrimonious aftermath in parliament and against public charges of mishandling the affair — all of which it must accomplish if it is to survive.

One example of the hurdles it faces is the case under consideration by the Electoral Commission over whether to dissolve the Democrat Party due to corruption. If it loses the case, the party would have to re-form under a different name to stay in power.

For its part, the Thai army has greatly strengthened its position.

First, it has shut down the protests forcefully in the past week, reclaiming some of the prestige it lost after a bungled attempt to end protests April 10.

More important, with its preferred civilian leaders in place, the army can expect a smooth transition of leadership in October, when Gen. Prayuth Chan Ocha is expected to succeed current army chief Gen. Anupong Paochinda. Prayuth is seen as a staunch royalist and the head of the leading military faction, as opposed to the military faction sympathetic to the Red Shirts and to Thaksin.

Throughout the recent mayhem, and especially since mid-April, the military has taken a leading role in overseeing the security response to the protests — in great part accounting for the high levels of bloodshed.

This informal power will not be as conspicuous now that the protests have concluded, but the military is not eager to cede any influence it has gained.

In general, its influence in the Thai establishment is strengthening as other important institutions — namely the monarchy and Privy Council — are undergoing generational transitions.

To deflect any criticism that could undermine its newly strengthened position, the army can point to civilian leaders’ handling of the crisis.

Ultimately the conclusion of the latest bout of mass protests has reaffirmed the cycle of instability that is inseparable from Thailand’s geographical, social, political and economic conditions.

This cycle is accelerating and intensifying as King Bhumibol Adulyadej nears the end of his life and a half-century long reign, creating deep uncertainty and competition among powerful interests and institutions.

Thailand’s cyclical political troubles, and its frequent periods of rising military control, have not prevented it from achieving economic success over the past half century, and its deeply divided political forces have managed to find accommodation within its well-established governmental structures before.

But the death of the king threatens to weaken the country’s ideological cohesion in a way that has not happened since 1946, when his reign began, and therefore the trend toward greater political turbulence is set to increase over the coming years, at least until the transition takes place and a new power arrangement emerges.

This report is republished with the permission of STRATFOR: www.STRATFOR.com.

ENDS

Junta forced to back down in face of overwhelming alliance of ethnic armies

Mizzima

Dan Pedersen

May 9, 2010

An ethnic opposition leader says Burma’s ruling military junta, the State Peace and Development Council, has had to rethink its offensive against a northern alliance of ethnic armies.

After weeks of bristling at the borders of Kachin, Wa and Shan states, SPDC troops have withdrawn to barracks at Lashio, said Lahu Democratic Front chairman Aik Long.

He said SPDC troops, as they pulled out on May 4, shouted abuse at ethnic army sentries watching them go, saying they would return after the elections to “destroy them”.

Mr Long said five units of SPDC troops, numbering 16,500 men, had withdrawn from forward positions in northern Burma that had them pitched against the Wa, and harassing the cities of Mong La and Pang Sang.

Mr Long was in Pang Sang when the SPDC marched on the city.

“They couldn’t take the city, or Mong La, and have withdrawn to Lashio,” he said.

“But they said they would be back after the elections to fight harder and destroy us.”

Mr Long is a former general-secretary of the National Democratic Front, an ethnic alliance currently headed by Karen National Union vice president David Thackrabaw.

He said SPDC troops engaged the United Wa State Army on April 28 and fought until May 3 “with many hundreds dead”, but withdrew on May 4, returning to their Lashio base.

“They went home,” he said, laughing.

Mr Long said at Mong La, the SPDC had encountered a force of 60,000 ethnic soldiers, headed by the Wa, but including Shan, Lahu and Akha ethnic fighters.

In Pang Sang he said the SPDC had once again withdrawn, encountering an opposing force of about 40,000 soldiers, made up of Wa and Lahu fighters and smaller ethnic groups.

He acknowledged the numbers of ethnic fighters he referred to were significantly greater than numbers previously quoted in news reports – the Wa is generally quoted as having 30,000 men under arms – but he said there had been a rush of civilians looking to join the opposition alliance as fighters.

“Civilian rule is the only way forwards for the country now, and civilians are joining the ethnic armies to ensure this happens.

“There will only be more people joining [the army] as the situation intensifies,” said Mr Long.

The withdrawal by the SPDC must be considered a win for the new northern ethnic alliance that has formed in Burma, consisting of the Wa, Shan, Akha, Lahu and Lisu peoples.

Mr Long said there were also many smaller ethnic minorities that had melded into the alliance.

He said the SPDC would be smarting from its recent failed engagement, having realised it would have to return in greater numbers to exert any control over the major northern cities.

He said the fuel bill for the offensive also would have been costly – transporting more than 16,000 soldiers anywhere requires a lot of diesel.

Mr Long said security was incredibly tight in the north, with the UWSA having taken control of mobile telephony throughout the state.

All caller IDs on all mobile calls are blocked and Wa intelligence are listening 24 hours a day for signs of traitors or to identify SPDC intelligence officers, he said.

At the suggestion the UWSA generally maintained a high level of security because of illicit businesses it was involved, including the drug trade, Mr Long was hardly apologetic.

“It’s a small land, but big money [can be had].

“At the moment the SPDC is brutal and we need an army to protect ourselves – an army needs weapons, ammunition and wages,” he said, in defence of the Wa’s drug trade.

“What we really want is peace,” he said.

“This election the SPDC is proposing is a fake election, it’s not fair and square,” said Mr Long.

“If the SPDC really wants peace then the only way forwards is to first release all of the political prisoners – our leaders.

“But Than Shwe is bent on having a small, centralised area running the whole country and that is wrong,” he said.

ENDS

Mizzima

Dan Pedersen

May 9, 2010

More than 2,000 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army soldiers are said to have defected to the Karen National Union, after military field reports early this week had hundreds of the defectors fighting Burmese Army units as they made their towards the Thai border.

DKBA and KNU representative met on Friday morning to discuss this burgeoning alliance of foot soldiers. Present was Lahu Democratic Front chairman Aik Long Kham Mwe, who said more would join the more than 2,000 DKBA soldiers who had defected to the KNU in recent weeks.

But Chit Thu, the hard-line commander of the DKBA’s Brigade 999, who has made peace with the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and become very rich in the process, still had a hard core of troops around him, Mr Long said. He said Brigade 999 was the militia’s only unit still attacking the KNU.

But for the DKBA rank and file, Chit Thu’s recent three-day public unveiling of his 10-bedroom villa that resembles a Las Vegas hotel might have represented the end of the road for many of them, Mr Long suggested.

There is little doubt Chit Thu is much better off financially than when he fought with the KNU. While his fleet of luxury vehicles grows, DKBA troops live in rudimentary bamboo shelters and eat bamboo shoots with chillies, rice and fish paste. Most of them do not own a single vehicle.

“For years the SPDC has had the Karen killing each other, now it looks like things might swing around,” Mr Long said. “Both the DKBA and KNU were at the meeting I attended this morning (Friday) and they all have the same idea now – to separate from the SPDC.”

“The KNU wants all Karen united, they don’t want to see the SPDC using the DKBA as human shields by pushing them into the front line by themselves,” he said. “Now is the time we must unite,” he said.

Brigade 999 reaps tax revenue from border crossings near Mae Sot, which it shares with KNU/KNLA Peace Council commander Tay Lay Mya, the youngest son of the late KNU powerbroker General Bo Mya.

Revenue from the Thai-Burmese Friendship Bridge across the Moei River is said to contribute about one billion baht a month to the Thai GDP. Bangkok has already approved a second bridge to be built to join Kokko on the Thai side and Shwe Kokko on the Burmese side and it is only a matter of time before construction begins.

The Tak chamber of commerce has for years lobbied to have such a link and new four-lane highways lead to the sleepy farming outpost of Kokko, cutting their way through the middle of Mae Sot. It is no wonder some locals no longer refer to Kokko by its original Thai name. Some just call it “Chit Thu”.

ENDS

Kokko bridge

Wangpha casino & resort, Shwe Kokko

VOA

May 8, 2010

Leading members of Burma’s main opposition party, who disagree with its boycott of an upcoming military-run election, say they are forming a breakaway faction to compete in the polls.

NLD member Than Nyien told VOA’s Burmese service Thursday that he and other members have decided to form a new political party called the National Democratic Force. He says the NDF will register with Burma’s military rulers to take part in the election to be held later this year.

Than Nyien says the political platform of the NDF will not be much different than that of the NLD, which is boycotting the election because it refuses to accept military terms in order to remain a legal party.

Under new election laws passed by Burma’s military, the NLD had to expel political prisoners from its ranks and register for the election by Thursday or face dissolution.

There was no immediate comment from the NLD on the breakaway faction’s decision to form a new party.

The NLD decided not to register for the election because doing so would have required it to expel its detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi. NLD members say their headquarters in Rangoon will continue to engage in humanitarian work but will no longer be involved in politics.

Some NLD members rolled up portraits of Aung San Suu Kyi at the headquarters Thursday before closing the office for the day.

Earlier, NLD spokesman Nyan Win told reporters in Rangoon that Burma’s Supreme Court refused to hear an NLD petition seeking to overturn the military’s new election laws.

Aung San Suu Kyi was convicted last August of violating the terms of her house arrest for sheltering an American who swam to her lakeside Rangoon home uninvited. The NLD leader and Nobel Peace laureate has spent 14 of the last 20 years under some form of detention.

Her party won the last democratically held election in 1990, but the military refused to accept the results.

ENDS

Flood of people expected as Burma’s military junta prepares for elections this year

Mizzima

Dan Pedersen

May 5, 2010

The Thai Army has established “protection” areas close to the Burmese border near Mae Sot, anticipating a flood of refugees as Burma’s ruling military junta prepares for elections this year.

As many as 10,000 Burmese are soon expected to be driven across the Thai border by troops of the State Peace and Development Council.

As the ethnic minority armies reject the junta’s demands they declare themselves Border Guard Forces, thereby transforming into government-led militias, the fighting and the fleeing begins.

Already Mon State residents are clustering on the Burmese side of the border, having made it across Karen State to the Thai border.

For the time they are holed up in an internally-displaced persons camp known as Halockhani.

The Thai Army has been monitoring a major military build-up on the Burmese side and has interpreted it as a massing of troops for a major offensive.

So convinced are the Thais of the coming offensive that two areas have been selected to shelter people displaced by the fighting, one to Mae Sot’s north, the other to the south.

The area in the south, Walay, near Phop Phra, is opposite a former KNLA base, Wah Lay Kee (see article), lost to the DKBA last year.

The other is at Kokko (see article and video), the district slated for a new bridge across the Moei River between Burma and Thailand.

Walay backs onto the KNLA’s Sixth Brigade region, Kokko is opposite KNLA Seventh Brigade.

This time, the Thai Army has made it clear there will be no permanent structures established to shelter people and those fleeing fighting will be expected to return home.

Lessons have been learned from last year’s DKBA offensive to Mae Sot’s north, when thousands of people landed on the Thai side in nebulous clusters spread across hundreds of kilometers.

As many as 6,000 people landed in Thailand in a short period of time and several significant KNLA base camps were lost to the DKBA.

At that time – in June, July and August – Thai authorities initially agreed with NGOs operating out of Mae Sot that an entirely new camp might have to be built because of the huge numbers of people fleeing fighting.

But while a few potential sites were surveyed, a new camp was never allowed, because of security threats posed by either DKBA or SPDC troops.

The new rules put in place by the Thais will certainly eliminate any attraction to the temporary camps.

No water tanks or new toilets will be allowed.

And people fleeing fighting more than 100 kilometres from the border will not be allowed to cross into Thailand.

Access to the two refuge zones will be extremely limited, with Thai soldiers having the final say about who may cross the border for temporary security.

Anyone thought to have links to the KNU or the DKBA will not be allowed to cross.

And no new arrivals will be permitted access to the existing refugee camps in Thailand.

ENDS

SPDC units in hot pursuit of defectors heading to Thai border

Mizzima

Daniel Pedersen

May 3, 2010

Hundreds of Democratic Karen Buddhist Army troops are reported to have broken their alliance with the Burma Army. Military field reports have the DKBA soldiers heading for the Thai border, with State Peace and Development Council units in hot pursuit.

There have been significant engagements between the two armies as the DKBA soldiers move east.

Karen National Liberation Army sources last night said the DKBA soldiers were “coming back, but not the commanders, of course”.

Karen National Union vice president David Takapaw said he had heard that many DKBA soldiers were unhappy with recent demands made by the SPDC and that some had begun to defect.

A split within the Karen National Union, between Buddhists and Christians, created the DKBA in 1994. It rapidly proved a destructive split.

In early 1995 the KNU stronghold of Mannerplaw, near the confluence of the Salween and Moei rivers, had fallen, with Burma Army troops guided into the natural fortress by KNU defectors flying the new DKBA flag. At the time the ruling military junta promised the DKBA leaders they would rule Karen State as they wished.

But in 2010 the DKBA does not so much manage Karen State as terrorise the countryside and milk urban areas of cash with standover tactics, while its leaders get rich on cross-border tax.

A photograph in last week’s edition of Mae Sot’s weekly tabloid Pan Din Maere, or Motherland, featured DKBA Batallion 999 leader Chit Thu posing with his family in front of his new home.

Even the local Mae Sot paper was invited to his Myawaddy house-warming party.

The house is a monument to new-found riches as only the nouveau-riche can manage. It is ostentatious and simply lighting the place for his three-day extravaganza would have cost a fortune.

Chit Thu has been one of the handful of individuals who have benefited from the DKBA’s creation. His Brigade 999 has a fearsome reputation and money to burn.

Until the SPDC started pressing his army for reform as a local militia, Chit Thu was riding high.

The question is to what extent the DKBA will be damaged by such a mutiny by its foot soldiers.A few hundred soldiers is many, but not much of an indent on overall DKBA numbers.

A warlord is nothing without the loyalty of his men. Chit Thu must now be questioning some of his men’s loyalty.

With SPDC troops hunting DKBA defectors as they make their way towards KNLA territory, the prospect of the whole of the DKBA peacefully transforming into a Border Guard Force looks marginal.

The DKBA still insists it supports KNU founder Saw Ba U Gyi’s four guiding principles of the “Karen revolution”.

They are:

1. For us surrender is out of the question
2. The Karen, we shall retain our arms
3. The recognition of Karen State must be complete
4. The Karen, we shall decide our own destiny

This, on face value, would have the DKBA opposed vehemently to the SPDC’s rule. But the split that festered in 1994 to become one of the most-damaging blows the KNU has ever felt is these days all about business.

The DKBA now manages border trade with the SPDC, as the KNU once did with the Thais. The KNU logged its border strongholds and oversaw tin, zinc and gold mining.

Now, all manner of goods, both legal and otherwise, cross back and forth, and the DKBA takes a cut on virtually every transaction.

Its leaders are becoming very rich.

But its foot soldiers, ever in danger from KNU landmines and ambushes, see a distinct separation from the lives they lead in the field and those of their leaders, whom the local media follow like celebrities.

Deadlines for the DKBA to transform into a Border Guard Force have come and gone, and as each one passes the SPDC ups the pressure a notch.

The junta’s BGF programme is essentially a system of creating local militias commanded by SPDC officers.

According to its programme of transformation, the DKBA would disarm, change uniforms and then be re-armed. As a BGF, the force would answer directly to the Burma Army. Soldiers would receive a wage, equivalent to 1,200 baht a month. Dropped would be the original DKBA shoulder patch, and most likely the name.

Such a move would take the DKBA further than ever away from its roots and its claims of being driven by Ba U Gyi’s principles.

ENDS

‘Stop the killing’

Letter a desperate plea for action

Karen National Union

March 5, 2010

While we, the Karen National Union (KNU), welcome UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s expression of concern regarding new attacks on the Karen people, we do not believe that this alone is an adequate response to the current crisis. We would like to remind the Secretary General that these attacks have been taking place for more than 60 years, and that numerous requests and expressions of concern, and even resolutions from the United Nations General Assembly, and a Presidential Statement from the United Nations Security Council, have failed to halt these attacks and persuade the SPDC military dictatorship to enter into genuine dialogue.

If the report fails to load, go here