Daniel Pedersen

Since the military junta has announced its election plans there have been many different responses from the public. There are apparently two schools of thought. One sees it as a good opportunity for change within the parliament and even believes that it is a necessary step from a dictatorship to a democratic society. Others, however, see it as just changing the mask, not the content and argue that there is absolutely no chance for change within the kind of this constitution. It is as if some dumb giant is trying to hatch a bird from a stone, no matter how much time and effort he spends on it, a stone is a stone and it never becomes a bird.

If we talk to those leaders who are going to contest in the election, what we find is that no one sees it is as a democratic constitution. Almost every leader strongly criticises the draft constitution and sees it as a tool to legalise the ruling junta as the legitimate government. Most of the candidates have expressed scepticism about whether they can argue for change in the parliament. But amazingly against their better judgement these leaders have decided to contest and the justification for doing so are outlined below.

1.   It is necessary to have an authentic party to represent the public.

2.   Taking whatever you can is better than getting nothing.

3.   Through the parliamentary system you can seek a way for change.

4.   Step ahead of those in parliament who are only in it for themselves.

5.   If nobody contests, the military sympathizers would monopolise all of the seats.

6.   This is a window of opportunity to find a way to break through the political deadlock.

7.   You need to get involved in the election and do what you can for the public.

8.   An election is the necessary step in a transition towards to a democratic society.

To consider their thinking requires us to examine the draft constitution thoroughly, but I will skip all the boring details and simply state right out front that the Burmese government is deliberately misleading the public. If one carefully observes the way the military is going about its election proceedings, one will see that this is just what they (SPDC) want the public to believe. Let’s consider the four prime components in any democratic election.

(1) Free and Fair Election

(2) Multi-Parties Involvement

(3) Voluntarily Public Participation

(4) Voluntarily Public Recognition of the Election Result

The authorities are determined to ensure a successful vote and so I can say for sure that it will not be a free and fair election. The Burmese ruling junta learned a bitter lesson from the past in the 1990-election when the NLD won in a land slide victory. Today there are no freedoms of speech, assembly, and press for a multi-party participation, the ruling junta would not be fool enough to let it be otherwise. No one in Burma is allowed to express their political beliefs freely. What we can say for sure is that the junta will tactically out manoeuvre these components somehow for a successful election.

The junta is trying to persuade the world that there will be multi-party involvement and voluntary public participation. Among these three obligations, multiparty involvement is the most important of all. If the junta can organise the parties’ involvements successfully the rest would fall into place and go smoothly as planned.

Let us see how the junta is going to organise “Multi-Parties Involvement”. The ruling junta knows from the very beginning that the NLD and the other parties which had contested in the 1990 election would not participate this time around.  As a consequence the Burmese population as well as the leaders of democratic countries all over the world would reject their election, thus it would be a big failure for the SPDC.  Clearly, they do not want such thing to happen.

They have been determined to turn around world opinion and so desperately need the cooperation of the Burmese population. The main purpose of this election is to legitimate their power as a democratic government, but this is not what the Burmese people want at all. As a result it is absolutely impossible for the ruling junta to expect a voluntarily cooperation from the public without jeopardizing their position. So a direct approach for the public to get involved in the election is impossible.  Such a strategy – the straight approach – would also produce disastrous results. To get “Voluntarily Public Cooperation and Participation”, the ruling junta needs a clever tactic.

If the ruling junta gets more parties to contest, it can certainly turn around public opinion.  The more parties that contest, the more involved the public would be in supporting them and the better off its illusion will be. A 100 percent turnout in the polls for the junta would translate into a successful election.  If by contrast only a handful of parties took part in the election, only a few would turn up at the polls. As a consequence an unsuccessful election would be a result.

The Burmese military regime needs a diversion of public opinion in casting their votes. Having a diversity of parties, the more likely it would be that the people would vote for their proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). We can estimate how important it is for the ruling junta to get multi-parties involvement.

First and foremost, psychological warfare is needed to obtain its objectives. The ruling junta, through its mouthpieces and agencies, spreads half-truths among the public.  Propaganda has been a successful tool as we have seen in the minds of those above who have decided to contest. As an example, let us study the political developments in the Mon community to see how the government has manoeuvred its tricks to turn them into supporters.

From the very beginning the Mon National Democratic Front (MNDF) has bluntly boycotted this election with the Mon population standing firmly behind them.  So to get Mon people’s involvement the ruling junta desperately needs the New Mon State Party (NMSP) rather than the MNDF. It knows that if it can convince the NMSP to take part it can also win the hearts of Mon people. All the Mon, including Mon monks and novices, would certainly follow behind this party. The SPDC has already laid down its strategy and tactics since 1995 when it reached a cease-fire agreement with them.

There are (3) main tactics that the SPDC uses:

1. Sharing Power Tactic

2. Coercion Tactic

3. Psychological Warfare Tactic

According to the first, the SPDC has lured the NMSP into a power sharing deal. For example, if the NMSP takes part in the election it would fully approve for the NMSP’s candidates to win the election.  However, it is the junta who selects the NMSP’s representatives in Mon State to manage Mon political affairs, not the people who have no say in choosing their own leaders. The NMSP leaders have roundly rejected these offers and refuse to contest in the election. Above all the NMSP has turned down the order to transform the Mon National Liberation Army (MNLA), its armed wing, into a Border Guard Force (BGF). The next tactic is what the SPDC has used to its fullest to intimidate the NMSP into going along with its plans. As everyone knows this coercion tactic has had its own shortcomings and I must bow my head to the NMSP’s leaders for their courageous stand against such enormous pressure. The psychological warfare tactic has been thus far been the most successful for a regime bent on holding onto power through all means as observed in those who have bought into the SPDC’s election promises.

Unexpectedly a new party was formed, the All Mon Regions Democratic Party (AMRDP), announced earlier this year to go ahead and contest the election to act as the representative for the Mon people. To my amazement when I learned about their decision amid such intense controversy over the SPDC’s constitution and its electoral process this decision threw me off and makes me wonder.

We all know who is leading the AMRDP. Nai Ngwe Thein was once an education official and as soon as AMRDP announced its decision, the opinions of the Mon people froze. No one has yet said anything against the AMRDP for its decision. This is exactly what is needed for the success of the junta’s election. All mouths who strongly oppose the election are now shut. No longer does anyone criticize the election, but see it as a necessary, unavoidable step towards a democratic society.

At last the SPDC has once again successfully turned its enemy into a willing supporter. All Mon will see that this is their national obligation to cast their votes on Election Day. The leaders of AMRDP will invest great effort in doing everything to get the Mon people involved in the process. In order to get their support, they approach Mon monks and novices who usually have so much influence upon Mon people. Every Mon now is gleefully preparing to take part in the election process. AMRDP is now at the head of the program to mobilize the whole Mon population to get involved in the election. Thus, I can say for sure that on Election Day our national dress will be worn by all and accompanied by the singing of the Mon national anthem at the booths. In the end since they themselves have voluntarily cast their votes in the election, they unavoidably will have to accept the election results and recognise those who have won the election as their representatives. But in the end it will take much more to guarantee ethnic harmony for the nation, we have a long way to go yet with or without coercion and tricks.

Another trick is the condition that every party must at least have 1000 members within 40 days of registration. Some parties have even claimed they have done so within a few days. This is a trap purposely laid by SPDC to have 1000 members at the core of party who will eventually turn out to be the junta’s organizers who can faithfully mobilize the public. These members most certainly will become an effective catalysis to mobilize the public to cast their vote.

Hopefully our readers see the point.  Otherwise, the SPDC itself has to find someone to do all their work and to organize the public to get them to go to the polls without absence.  Now the ruling junta has nothing to do but just wait and see whether all these things fall into place. The ruling junta has nothing to worry about when it comes to public participation, just sleeping in their mansions with their families or playing golf, while on their behalf their members will be busy as bees working to get the public’s involvement. The more they can mobilize the people, the more likely their candidate will win the ballot, and they don’t even need to spend a cent! Otherwise, as usual, the ruling junta has to use force or pay off someone with petty offerings of soap, sugar, and toothpaste.

Since they themselves voluntarily cast their votes, how public can deny the result of their votes. As consequence certainly public have to voluntarily accepting and recognising the result of the election. After all SPDC can easily turn its enemies to be its supporters. Eventually without any trouble the ruling junta can reap its objectives; Multi-Parties Involvement, Voluntarily Public Participation and Voluntarily Public Acceptance and Recognise the Result of Election. The ruling junta at last proudly can claim that it is a 100 percent “Successful Election”.

Nai Pe Thein Zar (Federal University)

Kaowao news group

www.bloomberg.com

Peter S Green

July 21, 2010

Allegations by a Myanmar defector that the military-run country is pursuing a nuclear program are corroborated by newly available commercial satellite images, Jane’s Intelligence Review said in an article released recently.

The photos of buildings and security fences near the country’s capital, Naypyidaw, confirm reports by Major Sai Thein Win of machine tool factories and other facilities alleged to be part of a nascent program to build nuclear weapons, the magazine reported from London.

“They will not make a bomb with the technology they currently possess or the intellectual capability,” Jane’s analyst Allison Puccioni said in an interview. “The two factors do make it possible to have a route to one.”

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed concern about reports that North Korea and Myanmar are expanding military ties and sharing nuclear technology at a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers in Thailand last year.

Clinton said the U.S. would remain “vigilant” against any military cooperation between the two countries. Yesterday, Clinton announced further sanctions against North Korea in an effort to halt the country’s nuclear-weapons program.

Sai said he worked at two factories involved in the nuclear program. His report to a Burmese opposition news website, Democratic Voice of Burma, based in Norway, included documents and color photographs of the interior of the installations.

The satellite imagery reviewed by Jane’s showed only the exterior of the buildings, Puccioni said.

‘Overly Ambitious’

Jane’s said Myanmar’s nuclear program is “overly ambitious with limited expertise,” in a statement yesterday. While Myanmar is a signatory to international agreements to control nuclear weapons use, it hasn’t agreed to more recent changes in the treaties and therefore isn’t subject to international inspections, the magazine said.

“With Myanmar’s current freedom from sanctions and relative economic prosperity, the junta may be able to outsource the technical know-how and tools to reach its goals far sooner than expected,” Christian Le Mière, editor of Jane’s Intelligence Review, said in a statement.

“Someone had to be assisting them, that’s the frightening thing,” said David Kay, a former United Nations weapons inspector and now a fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies in Arlington, Virginia, in an interview. “Myanmar is uniquely incapable of carrying this through.”

North Korea could be the country providing aid, said Michael J. Green, an adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former senior director for Asia on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush.

North Korea

During the Bush administration, North Korea discussed delivering short-range missiles and nuclear capability to Myanmar, Green said.

“We worry about the transfer of nuclear technology” and indications of clandestine military cooperation between two of Asia’s most secretive regimes, Clinton said last year. “I’m not saying it is happening, but we want to be prepared to stand against it.”

State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said on July 12 that the U.S. continues “to have concerns about Burma’s relationship with North Korea. It’s something that we watch very, very carefully and consistently.”

Last year, the U.S. Navy followed the Kang Nam I, a North Korean freighter headed in the direction of Myanmar with unknown cargo. The ship turned around and returned home.

The evidence points to a method of uranium enrichment, laser enrichment, that the North Koreans have never used, Kay said. “If it is laser enrichment the finger points more toward Chinese assistance or some place in the former Soviet Union,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Peter S. Green in New York at psgreen@bloomberg.net

Bloomberg

Shan Herald

Hseng Khio Fah/Emily Hobbs

July 16, 2010

A senior officer from Shan State Army (SSA) ‘North’ responded to criticism from National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) and United Wa State Army (UWSA), as well as people within the Shan State Army, of its decision to join the junta run Border Guard Force (BGF), according to sources on the Sino-Burma border.

Two of the three brigades, #3 and #7, which make up the SSA-N, consented to be controlled by the Burmese military in April this year. The remaining Brigade No.1 continues to resist pressure from brigades #3 and #7, as well as the Burmese military, to join the BGF.

The SSA N official representing brigades #3 and # 7 claimed that the groups had no choice but to join, explaining that his decision to do so was made in the best interests of the people of Shan state and would offer more stability for the region.

But Sai Leun, the leader of NDAA better known as Mongla group, commented that the SSA-N was; “acting only in its interest and not for the interests of the people”, adding that the group’s name is supposed to represent the whole Shan State and not just the territory in the north which will be most affected by the developments.

Those in the lower ranks of the SSA have indicated they share Sai Leun’s sentiments by defecting to join the steadfastly resistant First Brigade and the anti-Naypyitaw Shan State Army (SSA) ‘South’, which remain the principal armed opposition movement against Burma’s military rulers.

Unlike its neighboring groups – the UWSA and the NDAA – the SSA-N territory has no borders with any other countries and will therefore form a militia called the Home Guard Force (HGF) instead of becoming part of the BGF.

Groups who agree to transform themselves into BGF must accept Burmese military officials who will occupy most of the key positions in running the force, such as administration, personnel and material support departments.

But the SSA-N’s position as an HGF means that it is not necessary for Burmese military officials to take over the running of the force. The SSA official cited this fact – that there would be no Burmese intervention – as the basis for its decision, saying that it was only because of this that the group had agreed to transform.

However, in contradiction to that statement, unconfirmed reports last week suggested that the Burmese army was requesting brigades #3 and #7 move to Mao Valley along the Ruili valley (Shweli valley) on the Sino-Burma border and become forces of the Border Guard. Such a move would likely mean that Burmese officials would assume the running of the brigades, thus undermining the senior official’s defense of the group’s decision. The purpose of the move to Mao Valley remains unclear. It is possible that the Burmese army intends to maneuver the SSA-N into a position whereby they can safeguard the region during the election process against the SSA-South’s Force 701 active along the Sino-Burma border.

In an effort to reassure China there is stability in the region and ensure their continued support, the Burmese army has also told resisting groups that it will not engage in any further discussion about refusal to join the BGF until after the election, although defection of the members of brigades # 3 and #7 to the First Brigade and to the SSA-South is likely to heighten tension and put further pressure on the Burmese Army’s efforts to meet the required quotas to form three Home Guard battalions, set at between 900 – 1000 troops.

In the event that the Burmese army acts on its threats to attack dissenting groups, having brigades #3 and #7 in Mao Valley could provide a useful sacrificial front line defense against retaliatory attacks from the SSA-South and members of their own former sister groups in the First Brigade as they continue to gain strength in numbers.

Since late April the senior officers of the SSA-N have been keeping a low profile. The decision to speak now comes after months of mounting criticism from other resisting groups after brigades 3 and 7 reneged on the agreement made between all ceasefire groups on 16 April to form a Command, Control and Communications Centre for their joint defense against the junta’s BGF program.

The senior official’s statement does little to explain the reasons for the about-face and will likely be found to be unsatisfactory by those who continue to adhere to the April agreement.

The 3rd and 7th Brigades are commanded by Major General Loimao and Gaifa respectively and the 1st by Maj-Gen Pang Fa. He is reportedly close to the UWSA.

Shan Herald

ENDS

www.danielpedersen.org

Daniel Pedersen

July 16, 2010

These photographs were taken in and around SPDC chief Than Shwe’s new palatial residence in the military capital Naypidaw. As you can see by the newly-laid turf, the final trimmings have only just been added.
He could not, of course, risk building such a mansion in Rangoon, in fear of the outrage and protests it would inevitably provoke. But ordinary people won’t see the Naypidaw home, because they don’t live there, and aren’t welcome there. Rangoon remains the commercial capital of the country, while Naypidaw is the military and administrative boffins’ hideaway. Well, we got hold of the photos and here they are. Said Karen National Union Vice President David Thackrabaw: ‘See, negotiation is useless.’

ENDS