Daniel Pedersen

www.bloomberg.com

Peter S Green

   Naypyidaw, Burma

July 21, 2010

Allegations by a Myanmar defector that the military-run country is pursuing a nuclear program are corroborated by newly available commercial satellite images, Jane’s Intelligence Review said in an article released recently.

The photos of buildings and security fences near the country’s capital, Naypyidaw, confirm reports by Major Sai Thein Win of machine tool factories and other facilities alleged to be part of a nascent program to build nuclear weapons, the magazine reported from London.

“They will not make a bomb with the technology they currently possess or the intellectual capability,” Jane’s analyst Allison Puccioni said in an interview. “The two factors do make it possible to have a route to one.”

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed concern about reports that North Korea and Myanmar are expanding military ties and sharing nuclear technology at a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers in Thailand last year.

Clinton said the U.S. would remain “vigilant” against any military cooperation between the two countries. Yesterday, Clinton announced further sanctions against North Korea in an effort to halt the country’s nuclear-weapons program.

Sai said he worked at two factories involved in the nuclear program. His report to a Burmese opposition news website, Democratic Voice of Burma, based in Norway, included documents and color photographs of the interior of the installations.

The satellite imagery reviewed by Jane’s showed only the exterior of the buildings, Puccioni said.

‘Overly Ambitious’

Jane’s said Myanmar’s nuclear program is “overly ambitious with limited expertise,” in a statement yesterday. While Myanmar is a signatory to international agreements to control nuclear weapons use, it hasn’t agreed to more recent changes in the treaties and therefore isn’t subject to international inspections, the magazine said.

“With Myanmar’s current freedom from sanctions and relative economic prosperity, the junta may be able to outsource the technical know-how and tools to reach its goals far sooner than expected,” Christian Le Mière, editor of Jane’s Intelligence Review, said in a statement.

“Someone had to be assisting them, that’s the frightening thing,” said David Kay, a former United Nations weapons inspector and now a fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies in Arlington, Virginia, in an interview. “Myanmar is uniquely incapable of carrying this through.”

North Korea could be the country providing aid, said Michael J. Green, an adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former senior director for Asia on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush.

North Korea

During the Bush administration, North Korea discussed delivering short-range missiles and nuclear capability to Myanmar, Green said.

“We worry about the transfer of nuclear technology” and indications of clandestine military cooperation between two of Asia’s most secretive regimes, Clinton said last year. “I’m not saying it is happening, but we want to be prepared to stand against it.”

State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said on July 12 that the U.S. continues “to have concerns about Burma’s relationship with North Korea. It’s something that we watch very, very carefully and consistently.”

Last year, the U.S. Navy followed the Kang Nam I, a North Korean freighter headed in the direction of Myanmar with unknown cargo. The ship turned around and returned home.

The evidence points to a method of uranium enrichment, laser enrichment, that the North Koreans have never used, Kay said. “If it is laser enrichment the finger points more toward Chinese assistance or some place in the former Soviet Union,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Peter S. Green in New York at psgreen@bloomberg.net

Bloomberg

Shan Herald

Hseng Khio Fah/Emily Hobbs

  Shan state, Burma

July 16, 2010

A senior officer from Shan State Army (SSA) ‘North’ responded to criticism from National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) and United Wa State Army (UWSA), as well as people within the Shan State Army, of its decision to join the junta run Border Guard Force (BGF), according to sources on the Sino-Burma border.

Two of the three brigades, #3 and #7, which make up the SSA-N, consented to be controlled by the Burmese military in April this year. The remaining Brigade No.1 continues to resist pressure from brigades #3 and #7, as well as the Burmese military, to join the BGF.

The SSA N official representing brigades #3 and # 7 claimed that the groups had no choice but to join, explaining that his decision to do so was made in the best interests of the people of Shan state and would offer more stability for the region.

But Sai Leun, the leader of NDAA better known as Mongla group, commented that the SSA-N was; “acting only in its interest and not for the interests of the people”, adding that the group’s name is supposed to represent the whole Shan State and not just the territory in the north which will be most affected by the developments.

Those in the lower ranks of the SSA have indicated they share Sai Leun’s sentiments by defecting to join the steadfastly resistant First Brigade and the anti-Naypyitaw Shan State Army (SSA) ‘South’, which remain the principal armed opposition movement against Burma’s military rulers.

Unlike its neighboring groups – the UWSA and the NDAA – the SSA-N territory has no borders with any other countries and will therefore form a militia called the Home Guard Force (HGF) instead of becoming part of the BGF.

Groups who agree to transform themselves into BGF must accept Burmese military officials who will occupy most of the key positions in running the force, such as administration, personnel and material support departments.

But the SSA-N’s position as an HGF means that it is not necessary for Burmese military officials to take over the running of the force. The SSA official cited this fact – that there would be no Burmese intervention – as the basis for its decision, saying that it was only because of this that the group had agreed to transform.

However, in contradiction to that statement, unconfirmed reports last week suggested that the Burmese army was requesting brigades #3 and #7 move to Mao Valley along the Ruili valley (Shweli valley) on the Sino-Burma border and become forces of the Border Guard. Such a move would likely mean that Burmese officials would assume the running of the brigades, thus undermining the senior official’s defense of the group’s decision. The purpose of the move to Mao Valley remains unclear. It is possible that the Burmese army intends to maneuver the SSA-N into a position whereby they can safeguard the region during the election process against the SSA-South’s Force 701 active along the Sino-Burma border.

In an effort to reassure China there is stability in the region and ensure their continued support, the Burmese army has also told resisting groups that it will not engage in any further discussion about refusal to join the BGF until after the election, although defection of the members of brigades # 3 and #7 to the First Brigade and to the SSA-South is likely to heighten tension and put further pressure on the Burmese Army’s efforts to meet the required quotas to form three Home Guard battalions, set at between 900 – 1000 troops.

In the event that the Burmese army acts on its threats to attack dissenting groups, having brigades #3 and #7 in Mao Valley could provide a useful sacrificial front line defense against retaliatory attacks from the SSA-South and members of their own former sister groups in the First Brigade as they continue to gain strength in numbers.

Since late April the senior officers of the SSA-N have been keeping a low profile. The decision to speak now comes after months of mounting criticism from other resisting groups after brigades 3 and 7 reneged on the agreement made between all ceasefire groups on 16 April to form a Command, Control and Communications Centre for their joint defense against the junta’s BGF program.

The senior official’s statement does little to explain the reasons for the about-face and will likely be found to be unsatisfactory by those who continue to adhere to the April agreement.

The 3rd and 7th Brigades are commanded by Major General Loimao and Gaifa respectively and the 1st by Maj-Gen Pang Fa. He is reportedly close to the UWSA.

Shan Herald

ENDS

www.danielpedersen.org

Daniel Pedersen

  Naypyidaw, Burma

July 16, 2010

These photographs were taken in and around SPDC chief Than Shwe’s new palatial residence in the military capital Naypidaw. As you can see by the newly-laid turf, the final trimmings have only just been added.
He could not, of course, risk building such a mansion in Rangoon, in fear of the outrage and protests it would inevitably provoke. But ordinary people won’t see the Naypidaw home, because they don’t live there, and aren’t welcome there. Rangoon remains the commercial capital of the country, while Naypidaw is the military and administrative boffins’ hideaway. Well, we got hold of the photos and here they are. Said Karen National Union Vice President David Thackrabaw: ‘See, negotiation is useless.’

ENDS